The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	2.2	1.1
Observed-shots-based	2.5	1.2
Diff	0.3	0.1

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	64%	19%	17%
Observed-shots-based	68%	18%	14%
Diff	4%	-2%	-3%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	55	40		53	49
Defence	47	51		45	60
Overall	53	43		47	57